Last week was a good week all around. Ant and Dyllon both went 7-0, while Pough went 6-1. Ant is now 28-10on the season while Pough sits at 21-17. Let's take a look at this week's picks.
6 Miami @ Louisville
Although Miami is ranked higher than Louisville in almost every category, they’ve struggled the last two games vs teams that aren’t as talented as Louisville. Miami is #1 in total, scoring and passing offense. There’s no questions about them putting up points. The question is how well their #14 ranked defense plays. Louisville has the #21 total offense and #22 scoring offense. Can the Cardinals match Miami’s scoring output early? Three factors in this game that I’m keeping an eye on are sacks and turnovers. Louisville QB Tyler Slough has thrown a pick in each of his last three games, and Miami has 10 interceptions on the season. Miami also ranks #7 in sacks with over 3 per game, and Louisville gives up around 2 sacks per game. Can this be a get right game for Miami’s defense? The last factor is the X-factor. Miami is coming off a bye while Louisville is playing their 5th straight game. Will Louisville have enough gas to compete in a shootout?
Miami 35 - Louisville 27, Ant
Miami comes into the game 6-0 for the first time since 2017. This week the #1 scoring and total offense in the nation travels to Louisville to take on their toughest obstacle to date. Cam Ward has lead Miami's stellar offense with a Heisman-worthy campaign. Ward's nation leading 369.8 passing ypg may have a field day against a Louisville squad ranked 70th in the nation in passing yards allowed (216.5). Louisville isn't going to lay down. The homefield advantage may become a factor as this game has officially been labeled as sold-out. Louisville is averaging 42.3 ppg and only allowing 16.8 ppg at home. However, in their last two games, the Cardinals have allowed 31 and 34 points to Notre Dame and SMU. Miami has won their last two games by a combined 5 points. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here, but all logic says that the well timed bye week helped to refocus this Hurricane squad.
Miami 38 - Louisville 31, Pough
7 Alabama @ 11 Tennessee
Two things you normally wouldn’t hear going into this game: Tennessee has a better defense than Alabama, and why can’t Alabama run the football? The Tennessee offense, although struggling recently, ranks 9th in total offense and scoring offense, and 7th in rushing offense. Surprisingly in a Josh Huepel offense, the passing game is the area that needs improvement. Redshirt Freshman Nico Iamaleavea started off great but has looked like a first year starter in his last two games. The Alabama defense has been under criticism lately after losing to Vanderbilt and going to the wire with South Carolina. The #55 ranked defense just isn’t good enough for Alabama fans. If Jalen Milroe can make explosive plays against this stout Tennessee defense, the Crimson Tide will be smoking cigars on Saturday.
Alabama 27 - Tennessee 24, Ant
This game is a defacto playoff elimination game as both teams come in with an unforseen loss and a bounce-back struggle win in the last two weeks. Bama blew an early 14 point lead and escaped South Carolina's upset bid. Tennessee failed to put away a bad Florida team and went to OT to get the win. Tennessee comes in to this game ranked in the Top 10 in total and scoring offense and defense, BUT the offensive side has struggled mightily as of late. In the last 3 games, the Vols have only scored 20 ppg. On the flipside, in their last 3 games, the Tide has allowed 33 ppg. Tennessee is only allowing 79.7 rushing ypg. With the recent turnover issues, Bama cannot afford to become one-dimensional. I look for this game to be close and sloppy.
Tennessee 27 - Alabama 24, Pough
24 Michigan @ 22 Illinois
Illinois may have been looking forward to this game last week when they got taken to the wire by Purdue, escaping with a win in OT. The Illini have been impressive this season, especially on offense behind QB Luke Altmeyer. He leads the #58 ranked passing offense in the country, strange to say for a Bret Bielema team. Altmeyer has 14 tds to 1 int on the season, and he faces the 110th ranked pass defense. The Wolverine’s offense has been anemic, ranking 119 in total offense, 102 in scoring offense and 131 in passing offense. The Illinois run defense, ranked 77th, is going to have to stop Kalel Mullings and the Michigan run game, and force the Wolverines to try and win by passing. Michigan’s pass rush has 17 sacks on the season, and Illinois gives up over 3 sacks a game. If the Illini can keep Altmeyer upright, I think he can make some plays against this Michigan defense. Also, so far this season Illinois is undefeated at home, undefeated in one score games, and undefeated in overtime game, which bodes well for what should be a close game in Champagne.
Illinois 24 - Michigan 23, Ant
This Top 25 Big Ten matchup will be UGLY. Michigan is only throwing for 115 ypg while the defense is allowing 259.8 passing ypg. Luke Altmyer has to be licking his chops. Michigan won the Natty then turned their offense into a service academy. This Illini offense isn't setting the world on fire, BUT they are leaps and bounds better than what the Wolverine's will trot out on Saturday. Look for Illinois to score early and force Michigan to play catch up.
Illinois 31 - Michigan 21, Pough
8 LSU @ Arkansas
LSU vs Arkansas is a matchup where you throw the records out the window. LSU goes on the road for the first of 2 road conference games. Once can argue Arkansas should be undefeated on the season, losing close games to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Taylen Green should be back for this game, leading a razorback offense that ranks 8th in total offense. Although improved, the LSU defense ranks 77th in total defense. Garrett Nussmeier leads the #6 ranked pass offense against the 69th ranked pass defense. Can LSU get explosive plays through the air? Can LSU’s defense limit the big plays through the air, as they rank 100th in pass defense. Arkansas ranks 87th in sacks allowed, and LSU is 4th in sacks. If Taylen Green isn’t 100%, LSU could pressure him and force him to try and win the game with his arm. This game will be closer than many think, and the craziness of the “rivalry” makes me think it’ll be a wild one this weekend.
LSU 28 - Arkansas 21, Ant
The Battle for the Golden Boot. LSU fans can care less about the trophy. Most even dread this game. One of my favorite stats; since 2020, this matchup has only been decided by 3 points. That theme continues this year. Under familiar face, OC Bobby P, Arkansas has the 8th ranked total offense and the 39th ranked scoring offense. The Razorbacks will have a new few wrinkles coming off a bye week. The defense is 30th and 34th in scoring and total defense under second year DC Travis Williams. Former Tiger, Landon Jackson leads the Hogs with 4.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks on the year. LSU will need to control the tempo of the game and keep the Hog offense at bay. Fayetteville will be rocking. Look for the Tigers to start strong on defense after the confidence building win last week.
LSU 34 - Arkansas 31, Pough
5 Georgia @ 1 Texas
Another road test for Georgia, 3 weeks after the mega matchup with Alabama. This time they head to the #1 team in the country who looks to be on a different level from every other team in the conference. Texas comes into the game ranked #1 in total defense and scoring defense, and #7 in total offense and scoring offense. Their weakness, if you can call it that, is their run game which ranks 40th in the country. Georgia doesn’t look like the teams of old; if anything Texas looks like those elite Georgia teams Kirby built. Georgia ranks 27th in total offense and total defense. The bulldogs have the 92nd ranked rushing offense in the country and the 9th ranked passing offense. Being that one dimensional against this elite Texas defense is a formula for having a tough time moving the ball, especially considering Texas has the #2 pass defense. Georgia’s dominance of the past few years looks to be gone, at least this season.
Texas 28 - Georgia 17, Ant
Georgia goes to Austin as a 5 point underdog. No, that's not a typo. Georgia has looked like they also lost their head coach in the offseason. Maybe it is all of the arrests in the offseason. Texas on the other hands may have the most polite QB battle in all of FBS. Quinn Ewers returned last week but looked rusty. Several early passes were high or off mark. Don't expect to see the same this week. Georgia's defense is Top 30 in both scoring and total defense, but they have been subsceptible to the pass. Texas is started to get into the meat of their schedule so don't expect the wins to look as lopsided. Texas will be too much for the Dawgs and put them on the brink of playoff elimination.
Texas 31 - Georgia 21, Pough
Last but not least, Dyllon's picks.
