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Week 7 Picks

Oct 9, 2024

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Last week was the chaos that we all have grown to love about college football. Last second scores separated 5-0 (Ant) from 1-4 (Pough & Dyllon). Ant is now 21-10 while Pough sits at 15-16. Let's take a look at this week's picks.


1 Texas @ 18 Oklahoma

This is one of the biggest rivalries in college football. You can throw out the record books when it comes to The Red River Rivalry! Despite making the playoffs last year, Texas lost this game last year. As a matter of fact, since 2000, Oklahoma has dominated the series 17-8; since 2010, Oklahoma is 11-4 in the series. Despite being without their QB1 for their last two games, Texas has been flawless through the month of September. Texas is the #7 Total and Scoring offense. They are also Top 3 in both Total (3) and Scoring (2) defense. Oklahoma has been sluggish on offense(121 Total and 69 Scoring), but has a Top 50 Total defense and a Top 20 Scoring defense. Quinn Ewers is expected to return this week, giving the Longhorns a veteran signal caller in this heated battle. Across the field, true freshman Michael Hawkins, Jr. will start for the Sooners. Hawkins is the first true freshman QB to EVER start in this game. Texas has not scored less than 31 points in any game this year including their two Power 4 matchups. Oklahoma has not scored more than 21 offensive points on any Power 4 opponents. I look for the Sooners to cover the spread, but barely.

Texas 31 - Oklahoma 17, Pough


For the first time, the Red River Shootout is a SEC conference game. We know in rivalry games records don’t matter, as we saw last year when Oklahoma knocked Texas off in this game. On paper this shouldn’t be much of a game, as Texas leads OU in almost every category. Texas has the better offense (ranked 7th in total and scoring offense, 37th in rushing and 10th in pass offense) compared to OU (ranked 121 in total offense, 69th in scoring, 100th in rushing and 118th in passing offense). OU’s defense has been good under Venables (ranking 42nd in total defense, 19th in scoring, 27th in rushing, and 76th in pass defense) but longhorns still may have the better unit (3rd in total defense, 2nd in scoring defense, 30th in rush defense and 2nd in pass defense). Texas is just the better team, with more to play for this season, and looking to avenge the loss from last season.

Texas 31 - Oklahoma 17, Ant


4 Penn St. @ USC

Penn St. comes into this game playing up to the level of football that earned him $75M in 2021. USC comes in to the game fresh off a loss to Minnesota, their second Big 10 loss on the season. Penn St.'s smothering defense has carried over from last year and is currently ranked #4 and #8 in Total and Scoring defense respectively. Offensively, the Nittany Lions are Top 35 in  Total (22) and Scoring (33). While USC's defense has drastically improved from last year (119 Total and 121 Scoring in 2023 to 34 Total and 29 Scoring in 2024), the offense has taken a MAJOR step back. Last season, the Trojans were ranked #10 and #3 in Total and Scoring offense. This season, they are ranked #36 and #58. In their four games versus Power 4 opponent, USC is averaging 26.5 points while allowing 23 points. Penn St. is only allowing 14.3 ppg on the season. Penn State is also playing in their first road game since the opening weekend in neighboring West Virgina. I look for this game to be a battle where points are at a premium. Turnovers will be crucial.

Penn St. 27 - USC 21, Pough


These storied programs square off in another matchup, this time as conference members. The Trojans will have their work cut out against a stout Penn State defense that ranks top 10 in total defense (4th), rushing defense (4th) and scoring defense (8th). The USC offense under Lincoln Riley hasn’t been as explosive as in previous years, but they’re still a formidable offense, ranking 36th in total offense and 20th in passing offense. The biggest surprises for these teams have been the other side of the ball. Penn State hiring Andy Kotelnicki has improved their offense tremendously. The Nittany Lions rank 18th in rushing offense, 22nd in total offense, and 33 in scoring offense. On the flip side, the Trojan defense has improved to 34th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense. Ultimately, I think Penn State is the better team by a small margin.

Penn State - 27 USC 21, Ant


Arizona @ 14 BYU

Arizona travels to Provo, Utah to take on undefeated BYU. I cannot get a good feel on the Wildcats. They get blown out by Kansas St., beat Utah by two possessions, then get beat at home by Texas Tech. BYU is unblemished, but only has one win that stands out...well two. On the surface, I want to make this short and say BYU, BUT Arizona has already faced a Top 25 defense (Utah) on the road and won. Winning covers a multitude of sins and BYU's transgressions may just catch up to them in this game. Cougars QB Jake Retzlaff is 90/147 (61.2%), 1,208 yards, 12 TDs, and 5 PICKS! He is averaging an INT per game. Retzlaff is also the leading rusher for the Cougars. Wildcat QB Noah Fifita is no saint. On the season he is 110/179 (61.5%), 1,361 yards, 7 TDs, and 6 PICKS! So, do I trust a middle of the road offense or a Top 20 defense?

BYU 27 - Arizona 20, Pough


After losing to Texas Tech last week, Arizona comes into this matchup needing a win to stay alive in the Big 12. The Wildcats boast one of the most prolific QB-WR duo’s in the country with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillian. The Wildcat offense faces a tough test with the BYU defense ranked 24th against the pass and 20th in total offense. The Cougars have also done a good job of forcing turnovers, recovering 3 fumbles and forcing 7 interceptions on the season. Fifita has been prone to throwing interceptions so far, having thrown 6 in his first 5 games. BYU’s stingy defense, combined with an efficient redzone offense is the difference in this one.

BYU 34 - Arizona 21, Ant


Cal @ 22 Pitt

Cal is on a two-game skid after a loss to HORRENDUS FSU and a heartbreaker to Miami. Cal gave up 21 points in the 4th. My goodness! Well, the road doesn't get any easier as Cal now takes on a red hot #22 Pitt. Pitt's offense is Top 10 in yards and points, but those numbers are inflated by the lopsided wins over Kent and Youngstown St. Eli Holstein leads the way for the Panthers; coming in 113/172 (65.5%), 1,564 yards, 15 TDs, and 3 INTs. They say defense wins championships, but Cal is anemic when facing a top ranked offense, i.e. Miami. Cal will keep it close, but Pitt will get the finish.

Pitt 41 - Cal 37, Pough


Cal has a cross country trip one week after pushing Miami to the brink. Their test doesn’t get much easier this week as they go against one of the top offenses in the country. Pitt behind Alabama transfer QB Eli Holstein is ranked #5 in total offense, #6 in scoring offense, and #6 in passing offense. The Pitt defense ranks in the Top 50 in rushing defense and they rank 26th in 3rd down defense and 25th in red zone defense. Cal hasn’t been as successful offensively, as they rank 96th in rushing offense, 60th in passing offense, and 83rd in total offense. Cal’s defense has been solid against the run, ranking 34th in the county. However, they’re ranked 90th in passing yards allowed. That seems like a weak link that will be exploited by Holstein and the Panthers.

Pitt 34 - Cal 24, Ant


2 Ohio St @ 3 Oregon

In the preseason I asked Ant, who is closer to who in terms of talent? Bama to Georgia or Oregon to Ohio St.? Saturday, we find out. Ohio State is Top 10 on offfense (#9 Total and #5 Scoring) and #1 on defense (both total and scoring). Oregon is the #25 total and #32 scoring offense, and #11 total and #21 scoring defense. Both teams rolled through their first 5 games, but this is by far the biggest challenge either team will face. Ryan Day's last regular season loss to a team NOT named Michigan was to Oregon in 2021. Oregon and Dan Lanning have been impressive in his short stint as the head man in Eugene. I look at both teams and see the talent. I look at both teams and see the strengths. What I do not see, are many reasons to not believe in Ohio St.

Ohio St. 33 - Oregon 27, Pough


Arguably the matchup of the season between two championship hopefuls, in the first ever conference game between the schools. Both teams rank high in terms of offense and defense. Ohio State is 9th in total offense and 4th in scoring offense, while being 1st in total defense and scoring defense. Oregon is 25th in total offense, 32nd in scoring offense, and 10th in total defense) It’s hard to tell just how good these teams are when you look at who they’ve played. In terms of Strength of Schedule, Ohio State is 109th and Oregon is 94th. I think Ohio State is the more talented team, but Big 10 teams are 1-7 when traveling across multiple time zones. When you factor in the travel, and the atmosphere in Autzen Stadium, I think it’s enough to give Oregon the edge.

Oregon 27 - Ohio State 24, Ant


9 Ole Miss @ 13 LSU

Since LSU announced Brian Kelly as their new Head Coach, Lane Kiffin has been trolling. Since both have held serve and picked up wins at home. Now, it's a night game in Tiger Stadium and a defacto playoff elimination game. Ole Miss comes into this game with a Top 10 high-powered offense, but this year, they are also bringing a vaunted defense. This game gives me 2014 vibes when Hugh Freeze led the #3 Rebels into Tiger Stadium vs the #24 team. LSU won that game 10-7. I expect more scoring, but a similar result.

LSU 31 - Ole Miss 28, Pough


Ole Miss has finally been tested the last 2 weeks. They’ll face the toughest test of the season so far, as they go to Death Valley on Saturday night. The Rebels offense has been explosive, as you would expect from Lane Kiffin’s team. Ranking 2nd in passing offense, 2nd in total offense and 10th in scoring offense, the LSU defense will face their hardest challenge to date. This pass game could exploit

the LSU secondary that has still been an issue, ranking 93rd in pass defense. Overall, LSU defense has improved this season, ranking 66 in total defense and 48th in scoring defense. LSU’s pass game ranks 7th in the nation, and could take advantage of an Ole Miss secondary ranking 58th in pass defense, because this will be the best offense the Rebel defense has seen. Tre Harris’ injury could loom large for the Rebels, as he is the leading receiver in the nation with 885 yards in 6 games. Ultimately, this being the 7th game for Ole Miss, and LSU coming off a bye, I think the Tigers have more left in the tank late in the game, and find a way to win this one.

LSU 38 - Ole Miss 35, Ant


18 Kansas St @ Colorado

Both teams are coming off big wins and bye. Colorado has already matched their win total from last year and are two wins away from bowl eligibility. Kansas St. has conference championship and playoff ambitions. The two best athletes on the field will be on Colorado's sideline. No doubt Boulder and the Buffs' locker room will be rocking, BUT none of that matters. The coaching edge goes to K-State. I think Colorado shows promise, but falls short.

Kansas State 38 - Colorado 27, Pough


Kansas State and Colorado are both coming off a bye week with their eyes on the Big 12 championship. Kansas State is a balanced team ranking 47 in total defense and 43 in total offense. Their offense relies a lot on the running game as they rank 7th in rushing offense. Their defense can be suspect in pass coverage, as they rank 100 in pass yards allowed. That doesn’t bode well against a Colorado team that ranks 9th in the country in passing offense. Colorado’s defense has to improve if they want to be serious contenders, as they rank in the 80s in total defense (88th), rushing defense (81st) and pass yards allowed (82nd). There’s some familiarity between these teams, and there’s been some trash talk so the environment should be tense from the beginning. Ultimately, I think Colorado offense can score with anybody, but Kansas State is the more well rounded team.

Kansas State 35 - Colorado 34, Ant



Last but not least...



Oct 9, 2024

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